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What win rate is enough
Win rate alone means nothing. You can win 90% of the time and still blow up if each loss is twenty times each win.
The number that matters is expectancy: win rate times reward-to-risk, minus loss rate. At two-to-one, anything above a 33.4% win rate is positive.
So you can be wrong more often than right and still make money — provided the ratio and the size hold.
Run it on your own numbers
2,000 simulated paths on your own win rate and reward-to-risk. On the same edge, risking 2% per trade gives a near-zero chance of a halving drawdown; risking 10% gives over 90%.
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