All / Stage 4
How long a losing streak is still normal
At a 45% win rate, across 200 trades you will almost certainly hit a run of 6–8 consecutive losses. That is probability, not a broken strategy.
Most people abandon a sound strategy in the middle of an ordinary losing streak, switch, then abandon the next one at its streak.
Knowing the expected worst streak in advance is the only way to hold discipline when it arrives. Run the simulation before, not after.
Run it on your own numbers
2,000 simulated paths on your own win rate and reward-to-risk. On the same edge, risking 2% per trade gives a near-zero chance of a halving drawdown; risking 10% gives over 90%.